Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

The distribution and spread of citrus canker in Emerald, Australia

Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

Bactrocera dorsalis Preference for and performance on two mango varieties at three stages of ripeness

Most tropical fruit flies only lay into mature fruit, but a small number can also oviposit into unripe fruit. Little is known about the link between adult oviposition preference and offspring performance in such situations. In this study we examine the influence of different ripening stages of two mango Mangifera indica L. (Anacardiaceae) varieties on the preference and performance of the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), a fly known to be able to develop in unripe fruit. Work was carried out as a series of laboratory-based choice and no-choice oviposition experiments and larval growth trials. In oviposition choice trials, female B. dorsalis demonstrated a preference for ripe fruit of mango variety Namdorkmai over variety Oakrong, but generally the dependent variable most influencing oviposition results was fruit ripening stage. Ripe and fully-ripe mangoes were most preferred for oviposition by B. dorsalis. In contrast, unripe mango was infrequently used by ovipositing females, particularly in choice trials. Consistent with the results of oviposition preference, ripe and fully-ripe mangoes were also best for offspring survival, with a higher percentage of larval survival to pupation and shorter development times in comparison to unripe mango. Changes in Total Soluble Solids, TSS, and skin toughness correlate with changing host use across the ripening stages. Regardless of the mango variety or ripeness stage, B. dorsalis had difficulty penetrating the pericarp of our experimental fruit. Larval survival was also often poor. We discuss the possibility that there may be differences in the ability of laboratory and wild flies to penetrate fruit for oviposition, or that in the field flies more regularly utilize natural fruit wounds as oviposition sites.

Vectors and alternative hosts of tobacco yellow dwarf virus in southeastern Australia

Factors that determine the epidemiology of Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV), including alternative host plants and insect vector(s), were assessed over three consecutive growing seasons at four field sites in Northeastern Victoria in commercial tobacco growing properties. In addition, these factors were assessed for one growing season at three bean growing properties. Overall, 23 leafhopper species were identified at the 7 sites, with Orosius orientalis as the predominant leafhopper. Of the leafhoppers collected, only O. orientalis and Anzygina zealandica tested positive for TbYDV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The population dynamics of O. orientalis was assessed using sweep net sampling over three growing seasons and a trimodal distribution was observed. Despite large numbers of O. orientalis occurring early in the growing season (September–October), TbYDV was only detected in these leafhoppers between late November and end of January. The peaks in the detection of TbYDV in O. orientalis correlated with the observation of disease symptoms in tobacco and bean and were associated with warmer temperatures and lower rainfall. Spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation at selected sites was determined using quadrat sampling. Of the 40 plant species identified, TbYDV was detected only in four dicotyledonous species, Amaranthus retroflexus, Phaseolus vulgaris, Nicotiana tabacum and Raphanus raphanistrum. The proportion of host and non-host availability for leafhoppers was associated with climatic conditions.

Host use and crop impacts of Oribius Marshall species (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea

Oribius species are small flightless weevils endemic to the island of New Guinea and far northern Cape York, Australia. The adults feed externally on leaves, developing fruit and green bark, but their impact as pests and general host use patterns are poorly known. Working in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea, we carried out structured host use surveys, farmer surveys, shade-house growth trials, and on-farm and on-station impact trials to: (i) estimate the host range of the local Oribius species; (ii) understand adult daily activity patterns; (iii) elucidate feeding habits of the soil dwelling larvae; and (iv) quantify the impacts of adult feeding damage. Oribius inimicus and O. destructor accounted for nearly all the Oribius species encountered locally: of these two O. inimicus was the most abundant. Weevils were collected from 31 of 33 plants surveyed in the Aiyura Valley and a combination of farmer interviews and literature records provided evidence for the beetles being pestiferous on 43 crops currently or previously grown in the Highlands. Adult weevils had a distinct diurnal pattern of being in the upper plant canopy early in the morning and, to a lesser extent, again late in the afternoon. For the remainder of the day beetles resided within the canopy, or possibly off the plant. Movement of adults between plants appeared frequent. Pot trials confirmed the larvae are root feeders. Quantified impact studies showed that the weevils are damaging to a range of vegetable and orchard crops (broccoli, capsicum, celery, French bean, Irish potato, lettuce, orange and strawberry), causing average yield losses of around 30-40%, but up to 100% on citrus. Oribius weevils pose a significant and apparently growing problem for Highland’s agriculture.

Is a mango just a mango? Testing within-fruit oviposition site choice and larval performance of a highly polyphagous fruit fly

For fruit flies, fully ripe fruit is preferred for adult oviposition and is superior for offspring performance over unripe or ripening fruit. Because not all parts of a single fruit ripen simultaneously, the opportunity exists for adult fruit flies to selectively choose riper parts of a fruit for oviposition and such selection, if it occurs, could positively influence offspring performance. Such fine scale host variation is rarely considered in fruit fly ecology, however, especially for polyphagous species which are, by definition, considered to be generalist host users. Here we study the adult oviposition preference/larval performance relationship of the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), a highly polyphagous pest species, at the “within-fruit” level to see if such a host use pattern occurs. We recorded the number of oviposition attempts that female flies made into three fruit portions (top, middle and bottom), and larval behavior and development within different fruit portions for ripening (color change) and fully-ripe mango, Mangifera indica L. (Anacardiaceae). Results indicate that female B. dorsalis do not oviposit uniformly across a mango fruit, but lay most often in the top (i.e., stalk end) of fruit and least in the bottom portion, regardless of ripening stage. There was no evidence of larval feeding site preference or performance (development time, pupal weight, percent pupation) being influenced by fruit portion, within or across the fruit ripening stages. There was, however, a very significant effect on adult emergence rate from pupae, with adult emergence rate from pupae from the bottom of ripening mango being approximately only 50% of the adult emergence rate from the top of ripening fruit, or from both the top and bottom of fully-ripe fruit. Differences in mechanical (firmness) and chemical (total soluble solids, titratable acidity, total non-structural carbohydrates) traits between different fruit portions were correlated with adult fruit utilisation. Our results support a positive adult preference/offspring performance relationship at within-fruit level for B. dorsalis. The fine level of host discrimination exhibited by B. dorsalis is at odds with the general perception that, as a polyphagous herbivore, the fly should show very little discrimination in its host use behavior.

Towards a model of spray-canopy interactions : interception, shatter, bounce and retention of droplets on horizontal leaves

Pesticides used in agricultural systems must be applied in economically viable and environmentally sensitive ways, and this often requires expensive field trials on spray deposition and retention by plant foliage. Computational models to describe whether a spray droplet sticks (adheres), bounces or shatters on impact, and if any rebounding parent or shatter daughter droplets are recaptured, would provide an estimate of spray retention and thereby act as a useful guide prior to any field trials. Parameter-driven interactive software has been implemented to enable the end-user to study and visualise droplet interception and impaction on a single, horizontal leaf. Living chenopodium, wheat and cotton leaves have been scanned to capture the surface topography and realistic virtual leaf surface models have been generated. Individual leaf models have then been subjected to virtual spray droplets and predictions made of droplet interception with the virtual plant leaf. Thereafter, the impaction behaviour of the droplets and the subsequent behaviour of any daughter droplets, up until re-capture, are simulated to give the predicted total spray retention by the leaf. A series of critical thresholds for the stick, bounce, and shatter elements in the impaction process have been developed for different combinations of formulation, droplet size and velocity, and leaf surface characteristics to provide this output. The results show that droplet properties, spray formulations and leaf surface characteristics all influence the predicted amount of spray retained on a horizontal leaf surface. Overall the predicted spray retention increases as formulation surface tension, static contact angle, droplet size and velocity decreases. Predicted retention on cotton is much higher than on chenopodium. The average predicted retention on a single horizontal leaf across all droplet size, velocity and formulations scenarios tested, is 18, 30 and 85% for chenopodium, wheat and cotton, respectively.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S.Madagascariensis)

Abstract The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Direct and indirect effects of egg parasitism by Neopolyscystus Girault sp. (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) on Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Abstract Neopolycystus sp. is the only primary egg parasitoid associated with the pest beetle Paropsis atomaria in subtropical eucalypt plantations, but its impact on its host populations is unknown. The simplified ecosystem represented by the plantation habitat, lack of interspecific competition for host and parasitoid, and the multivoltinism of the host population makes this an ideal system for quantifying the direct and indirect effects of egg parasitism, and hence, effects on host population dynamics. Within-, between- and overall-egg-batch parasitism rates were determined at three field sites over two field seasons, and up to seven host generations. The effect of exposure time (egg batch age), host density proximity to native forest and water sources on egg parasitism rates was also tested. Neopolycystus sp. exerts a significant influence on P. atomaria populations in Eucalyptus cloeziana. plantations in south-eastern Queensland, causing the direct (13%) and indirect (15%) mortality of almost one-third of all eggs in the field. Across seasons and generations, 45% of egg batches were parasitised, with a within-batch parasitism rate of around 30%. Between-batch parasitism increased up to 5–6 days after oviposition in the field, although within-batch parasitism rates generally did not. However, there were few apparent patterns to egg parasitism, with rates often varying significantly between sites and seasons.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritdae) : what do we know to assist pest management?

The distribution, systematics and ecology of Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly are reviewed. Bactrocera tryoni is a member of the B. tryoni complex of species, which currently includes four named species, viz. B. tryoni s.s., B. neohumeralis, B. melas and B. aquilonis. The species status of B. melas and B. aquilonis are unclear (they may be junior synonyms of B. tryoni) and their validity, or otherwise, needs to be confirmed as a matter of urgency. While Queensland fruit fly is regarded as a tropical species, it cannot be assumed that its distribution will spread further south under climate change scenarios. Increasing aridity and hot dry summers, as well as more complex, indirect interactions resulting from elevated CO2, make predicting the future distribution and abundance of B. tryoni difficult. The ecology of B. tryoni is reviewed with respect to current control approaches (with the exception of Sterile Insect Technique which is covered in a companion paper). We conclude that there are major gaps in the knowledge required to implement most non-insecticide based management approaches. Priority areas for future research include host plant interactions, protein and cue-lure foraging and use, spatial dynamics, development of new monitoring tools, investigating the use of natural enemies and better integration of fruit flies into general horticultural IPM systems.